Friday, February 25, 2011

The inevitable battle for second place

Let's be honest, right? The Braves are playing for second place and the Wild Card. When the Phils went out and signed Cliff Lee to join "H2O" smart money just went ahead and penciled them into the World Series. In ink. The rest of us should be happy that our teams are allowed to be beaten mercilessly by our new Philadelphian Overlords. Not since the Mets brought in Johan Santana to team with Pedro Martinez and Mike Pelfrey has such an unstoppable juggernaut been unleashed in the NL.

Oh, but our passions are deep, and it is spring. Perhaps we can at least dream to one day hope. In this spirit that I present part one of A Series of Datum with Commentary In Tabular Format.

2010 WAR Commentary

Roy Halladay 6.9 Roy Halladay is really damned good.
Tim Hudson 5.4 Tim Hudson is better than the rest of the Phillies' rotation.
Roy Oswalt 5.1 Oswalt posted two straight years of 3ish WARs and was on track to do that again, until he went insane after the trade to Philly. He won't be insane again in 2011. He's 3-4 WAR pitcher.
Cole Hamels 4.7 Hamels is really good and young enough to still improve. He's Philadelphia's second best starter.
Cliff Lee 4.3 Very good, yet still extremely overrated.
Tommy Hanson 2.5 It doesn't take a Braves partisan to suspect that Hanson is primed, after two years of 2.5ish WARs, to move into the league of Hamels and Lee. He's 24.
Derek Lowe 1.7 For fun, I call Derek Lowe “The White Man's Kenshin Kawakami.” Outside of Joe Blanton Lowe is the most likely to just go whammo and suck completely in 2011. He's 38.
Jair Jurrjens 0.0 Jurrjens had an injury plagued 2010. In 2009 he posted a 5+ WAR. There's no reason to think he can't do that again when healthy for 2011.
Joe Blanton -0.7 Aging mediocrity.
Mike Minor -0.7 Up and coming #3.

Halladay sets himself apart from the rest of the field. That's obvious. And the Phils are more likely to get good pitching from their #4 guy (Oswalt) than the Braves (Lowe.) But Mike Minor is just as likely to out-pitch Joe Blanton.

The doom, it is overstated.


CDial said...

Oswalt has been victimized by his team for his WAR. He's better than Hudson.

Sam said...